Ilya Kvasnytsya
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilya Kvasnytsya's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (840 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 0.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €536k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 840 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1056
- Opponent strength
- 1147
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €445k – €1.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-142 Elo); relative output down 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -46% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 840 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 12 | 756 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.33 | 1147 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 8 | 84 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1150 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 17 | 966 | 36% | 4 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.52 | 1186 | 1199 | 0.28 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | LW | 7 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.02 | 0.53 | 1212 | 1185 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 30 | 1833 | 68% | 8 | 8 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 1267 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | RW | 8 | 174 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 1195 | 1218 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 2 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 64 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 2 | 164 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan MacKay Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Kostyantyn Bychek Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Julian Kristoffersen Superliga · 2020 | 23 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Kevin Rosero Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Nazariy Nych Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Kubilay Kanatsızkuş Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Yegor Gunichev Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Steven Bradley Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €350k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | Rukh Lviv | Karpaty Lviv | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 5 Sept 2025 | Karpaty Lviv | Rukh Lviv | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 20 Jan 2025 | Rukh Lviv | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Rukh Lviv U19 | Rukh Lviv | Unknown | €75k |
| 18 Sept 2020 | UFK Lviv | Rukh Lviv U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Bukovyna U17 | UFK Lviv | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.