Oleksandr Saputin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksandr Saputin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-2.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €753k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2070 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1192
- Opponent strength
- 1186
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €440k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +16% (IQR -31% to +108%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 23 | 2070 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1186 | 1192 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 17 | 1530 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1198 | 1182 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 19 | 1709 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1282 | 1235 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 15 | 1350 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1276 | 1406 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavlo Isenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €700k | €1.2M | rose |
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Antonis Tsiftsis Super League 1 · 2022 | 23 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Hans Christian Bernat Superliga · 2022 | 22 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Strezos Super League 1 · 2019 | 24 | €400k | €325k | flat |
| William Eskelinen Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €650k | €350k | fell |
| Doğan Alemdar Super Lig · 2021 | 19 | €2.4M | €4.0M | rose |
| Lucas Lund Superliga · 2022 | 22 | €400k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Zorya U19 | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €50k |
| 20 Aug 2020 | Dnipro U17 | Zorya U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.