Alexander Schwolow
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexander Schwolow's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 54.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €155k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2385 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 54 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1211
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €107k – €435k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 63 pts; changed club; team strength down (-62 Elo); league level down (-274 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -49% (IQR -63% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 38 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 74%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 27 | 2385 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1211 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | GK | 6 | 540 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1421 | 1394 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1672 | 1431 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | GK | 23 | 2034 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1552 | 1354 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | GK | 25 | 2176 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1526 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1502 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 24 | 2092 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1525 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1525 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2907 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1509 | 1415 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1536 | 1444 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1508 | 1454 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denys Boyko Premier Liga · 2024 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Yuriy Lodygin Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Igor Lytovka Premier Liga · 2022 | 34 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Andriy Klishchuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Julián Cuesta Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Silviu Lung Jr. Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Jonas Lössl Superliga · 2023 | 34 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Zander Clark Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 32 | €700k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2025 | Union Berlin | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Jul 2023 | Hertha BSC | Union Berlin | Free / loan | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Schalke 04 | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hertha BSC | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 4 Aug 2020 | Freiburg | Hertha BSC | €7.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Arm. Bielefeld | Freiburg | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Freiburg | Arm. Bielefeld | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | SC Freiburg II | Freiburg | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SC Freiburg U19 | SC Freiburg II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | SV Wehen U17 | SC Freiburg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | SV Wehen Yth. | SV Wehen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Allendorf Yth. | SV Wehen Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.