Sead Kolasinac
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sead Kolasinac's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-9.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 89.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.8M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1219 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; team strength down (-91 Elo); relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -58% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1219 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 19 | 1219 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1494 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 23 | 1910 | 56% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1511 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2182 | 64% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1472 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 33 | 2219 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1435 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LB | 14 | 438 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 1387 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 2 | 91 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1829 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 17 | 1425 | 47% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1522 | 1303 | 1.06 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1468 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LB | 26 | 1699 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1539 | 1641 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LM | 24 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 1548 | 1733 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LM | 27 | 2152 | 63% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 1538 | 1665 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LM | 25 | 2070 | 68% | 3 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 1528 | 1556 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 23 | 1570 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1527 | 1543 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 6 | 453 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1487 | 1535 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | LB | 24 | 1853 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1557 | 1622 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | CB | 16 | 1103 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1462 | 1604 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 6 | 381 | 0 | 0 | 1679 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 264 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 207 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 9 | 639 | 1 | 2 | 1619 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 9 | 687 | 0 | 1 | 1621 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 331 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 1602 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1453 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1842 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 4 | 183 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 726 | 0 | 2 | 1611 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 5 | 225 | 2 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2017/18 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 1756 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 582 | 0 | 3 | 1546 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 241 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 402 | 0 | 1 | 1476 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 301 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiko Femenía Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
| Elseid Hysaj Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Aïssa Mandi Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Patric Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Simon Kjær Serie A · 2020 | 31 | €5.2M | €6.0M | flat |
| James Collins Premier League · 2016 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ervin Zukanovic Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Lorik Cana Serie A · 2015 | 32 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2023 | Marseille | Atalanta | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 18 Jan 2022 | Arsenal | Marseille | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Schalke 04 | Arsenal | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 4 Jan 2021 | Arsenal | FC Schalke 04 | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Schalke 04 | Arsenal | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Schalke 04 U19 | FC Schalke 04 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Stuttgart U19 | Schalke 04 U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Hoffenheim U17 | Stuttgart U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Karlsruhe U17 | Hoffenheim U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Karlsruhe Yth. | Karlsruhe U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | Karlsruhe Yth. | Karlsruhe Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.