Diogo Bezerra
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diogo Bezerra's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1267 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.6M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1267 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1315
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €986k – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -13% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1267 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RM | 17 | 1267 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 1315 | 1254 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Rodrigues Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Adam Maher Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €1.8M | €3.2M | rose |
| Pelle van Amersfoort Eredivisie · 2019 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Lamine Diack Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €1.7M | €900k | fell |
| Diego Lopes Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Pelle Clement Eredivisie · 2019 | 23 | €900k | €800k | flat |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2017 | 22 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Parfait Guiagon Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 23 | €1.8M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | OFK Beograd | Rio Ave | €2.0M | €1.8M |
| 7 Feb 2025 | NS Mura | OFK Beograd | Unknown | €100k |
| 9 Sept 2024 | P. Vitória U20 | NS Mura | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Bragantino U20 | P. Vitória U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Mar 2023 | P. Vitória U20 | Bragantino U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Mar 2023 | Red Bull | P. Vitória U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jan 2023 | P. Vitória U20 | Red Bull | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Ferroviária U20 | P. Vitória U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2021 | Atlético-MG U20 | Ferroviária U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Atlético-MG U17 | Atlético-MG U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.