Parfait Guiagon
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Parfait Guiagon's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.38x the positional average in the league (2084 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2084 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.56
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1307
- Opponent strength
- 1390
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -62% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 26 | 2084 | 77% | 8 | 5 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 1390 | 1307 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 26 | 1993 | 74% | 5 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 1387 | 1315 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 23 | 1375 | 51% | 5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0.52 | 1378 | 1268 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 7 | 474 | 1 | 0 | 1352 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 2 | 194 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 3 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 1429 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián Dalmau Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €4.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Brandley Kuwas Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Kristoffer Peterson Eredivisie · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €800k | fell |
| Mario González Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Yoane Wissa Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Ilombe Mboyo Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Serdar Gürler Super Lig · 2018 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2023 | M. Tel Aviv | R Charleroi SC | €1.5M | €1.4M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Maccabi Netanya | M. Tel Aviv | Free / loan | €900k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | M. Tel Aviv | Maccabi Netanya | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | B TLV Bat Yam | M. Tel Aviv | Free / loan | €250k |
| 13 Aug 2020 | M. Tel Aviv | B TLV Bat Yam | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Africa Sports | M. Tel Aviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2020 | M. Tel Aviv U19 | Africa Sports | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Aug 2019 | Africa Sports | M. Tel Aviv U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.