Álvaro Rodríguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Álvaro Rodríguez's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-22.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.7M-26.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (2201 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €12.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 39% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2201 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 39%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.7M – €26.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -46% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2201 | 64% | 7 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.58 | 1476 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 22 | 847 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 1579 | 1395 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1466 | 1867 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Madrid | Laliga | ST | 6 | 75 | 2% | 1 | 1 | 2.40 | 0.48 | 1594 | 1737 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 4 | 234 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Waldschmidt Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Davie Selke Bundesliga · 2018 | 23 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Lebo Mothiba Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Diego Rolán Ligue 1 · 2015 | 22 | €7.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Munir El Haddadi Laliga · 2017 | 22 | €9.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Simone Verdi Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €6.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Marco Richter Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Alexis Flips Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Real Madrid | Elche CF | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Getafe | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 29 Aug 2024 | Real Madrid | Getafe | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Madrid U17 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Girona FC Youth | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.