Pape Demba Diop
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pape Demba Diop's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-5.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.3M-16.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-19.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1187 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.1M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 31% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1187 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 31%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.7M – €19.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -39% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1187 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CM | 15 | 1187 | 39% | 1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 1465 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2022/23 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 1 | 32 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1318 | 1200 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann M'Vila Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Giannelli Imbula Ligue 1 · 2014 | 22 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Amir Richardson Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nico Melamed Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Niels Nkounkou Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €7.5M | €2.6M | fell |
| Daniele Baselli Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €4.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Youssef Maleh Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Danilo Cataldi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Toulouse | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 7 Jan 2026 | R. Strasbourg | Toulouse | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 6 Jan 2026 | 1.FC Nuremberg | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Aug 2025 | R. Strasbourg | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Zulte Waregem | R. Strasbourg | €7.5M | €1.0M |
| 6 Sept 2022 | Diambars FC | Zulte Waregem | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.