Weslley Patati
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Weslley Patati's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-9.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (1448 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.7M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1448 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 33 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1288
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €9.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +24% (IQR -12% to +106%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1448 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | RW | 27 | 1448 | 47% | 2 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 1288 | 1393 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 208 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 1438 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1276 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Mukairu Super Lig · 2022 | 22 | €2.5M | €700k | fell |
| Myron van Brederode Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Michel-Ange Balikwisha Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €4.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Mateus Vital Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Andy Nájar Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Ruben van Bommel Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Olakunle Olusegun Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ola Brynhildsen Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | M. Tel Aviv | AZ Alkmaar | €7.3M | €2.5M |
| 4 Sept 2024 | Santos | M. Tel Aviv | €1.3M | €900k |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Santos U20 | Santos | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Santos FC U17 | Santos U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.