Myron van Brederode
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Myron van Brederode's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-10.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1953 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.3M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 32% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1953 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1370
- Opponent strength
- 1371
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 32%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €10.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -23% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 24 | 1953 | 72% | 7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 1371 | 1370 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LW | 3 | 172 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1223 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LW | 29 | 1308 | 43% | 2 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 1320 | 1441 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LW | 25 | 1202 | 39% | 4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 1321 | 1530 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KV Mechelen | 10 | 889 | 2 | 3 | 1481 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 183 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 1339 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Novais Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Denis Makarov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Eduard Spertsyan Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €6.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Steven Alzate Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Martin Hongla Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ken Nkuba Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €4.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Răzvan Marin Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 22 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Tomás Händel Liga Portugal · 2024 | 24 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | KV Mechelen | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | F. Düsseldorf | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Aug 2022 | AZ U18 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AZ U17 | AZ U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | AZ U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AFC Youth | AZ Alkmaar Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.