Kaique Pereira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kaique Pereira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-4.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract ends within 6 months: can sign a pre-contract; small or no fee.
Bargain Index: 100
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 23.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €196k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2520 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 7)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1231
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 65 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -34% to +49%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Nacional | Liga Portugal | GK | 28 | 2520 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1323 | 1231 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Farense | Liga Portugal | GK | 6 | 540 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1288 | 1184 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivor Pandur Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Bilal Bayazıt Super Lig · 2023 | 24 | €1.7M | €2.0M | flat |
| Thomas Didillon-Hödl Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kjell Scherpen Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Pierrick Cros Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Cristiano Figueiredo Liga Portugal · 2015 | 25 | €1.7M | €500k | fell |
| Kostas Lamprou Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Thomas Kaminski Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €900k | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Nacional | Palmeiras | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 14 Jul 2025 | Palmeiras | Nacional | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Farense | Palmeiras | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Palmeiras | Farense | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Palmeiras U20 | Palmeiras | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Palmeiras U17 | Palmeiras U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.