
Kjell Scherpen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kjell Scherpen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-8.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.6M-11.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-14.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.5M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1935 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1366
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €14.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -56% to -9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 22 | 1935 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1366 | 1570 | 0.65 |
| 2022/23 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | GK | 26 | 2293 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1345 | 1342 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KV Oostende | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 7 | 630 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1383 | 1220 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1259 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2018/19 | FC Emmen | Eredivisie | GK | 34 | 3046 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1362 | 1268 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1677 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | FC Emmen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Lunev Premier Liga · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Matz Sels Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €4.5M | €6.5M | rose |
| Justin Bijlow Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Aleksandr Selikhov Premier Liga · 2018 | 24 | €5.8M | €2.8M | fell |
| Stanislav Kritsyuk Premier Liga · 2017 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Altay Bayındır Super Lig · 2023 | 25 | €11.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Bruno Varela Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €8.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Kenneth Vermeer Eredivisie · 2013 | 27 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Brighton | Union SG | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sturm Graz | Brighton | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Brighton | Sturm Graz | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Vitesse | Brighton | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Brighton | Vitesse | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | KV Oostende | Brighton | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Brighton | KV Oostende | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Ajax | Brighton | €5.0M | €2.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Emmen | Ajax | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Emmen U19 | FC Emmen | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Emmen U17 | Emmen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Emmen Youth | Emmen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Emmen Yth. | FC Emmen Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.