Kjell Scherpen

26 yrs · Goalkeeper · Netherlands
Union Saint-Gilloise · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 206 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.6M – €11.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €8.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.6M – €14.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.3M – €4.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.6M – €11.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €8.8M
Projected value (24 months)€3.6M – €14.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kjell Scherpen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-8.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.6M-11.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-14.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 33

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average67.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €8.5M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-7% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1935 (72% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
67 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1570
Opponent strength
1366
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.6M – €14.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -56% to -9%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
214 (all positions)
Relative output kept
68%–140%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Union Saint-GilloiseJupiler Pro LeagueGK22193572%000.000.00136615700.65
2022/23Vitesse ArnhemEredivisieGK26229375%000.000.00134513420.58
2021/22KV OostendeJupiler Pro LeagueGK763021%000.000.00138312200.49
2020/21Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieGK21806%000.000.00125917220.56
2018/19FC EmmenEredivisieGK343046100%000.000.00136212680.61

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Playoff IUnion Saint-Gilloise10900001436
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueUnion Saint-Gilloise8720001677
2021/22Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion112000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam190001606
2020/21Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam19000—
2018/19Knvb BekerFC Emmen19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andrey Lunev
Premier Liga · 2018
27€8.0M€7.0Mflat
Matz Sels
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
26€4.5M€6.5Mrose
Justin Bijlow
Eredivisie · 2023
25€15.0M€5.0Mfell
Aleksandr Selikhov
Premier Liga · 2018
24€5.8M€2.8Mfell
Stanislav Kritsyuk
Premier Liga · 2017
27€5.0M€4.5Mflat
Altay Bayındır
Super Lig · 2023
25€11.0M€8.0Mfell
Bruno Varela
Liga Portugal · 2018
24€8.0M€2.4Mfell
Kenneth Vermeer
Eredivisie · 2013
27€6.5M€6.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jul 2025BrightonUnion SG€2.0M€5.0M
30 Jun 2025Sturm GrazBrightonFree / loan€5.0M
6 Jul 2023BrightonSturm GrazFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2023VitesseBrightonFree / loan€2.0M
16 Aug 2022BrightonVitesseFree / loan€2.2M
30 Jun 2022KV OostendeBrightonFree / loan€2.2M
31 Jan 2022BrightonKV OostendeFree / loan€2.8M
16 Jul 2021AjaxBrighton€5.0M€2.8M
1 Jul 2019FC EmmenAjax€1.5M€1.5M
1 Jul 2017Emmen U19FC EmmenUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2016Emmen U17Emmen U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015FC Emmen YouthEmmen U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Emmen Yth.FC Emmen YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.