Daniel Høegh
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daniel Høegh's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 30.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €54k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1828 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1257
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €83k – €100k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 98% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -61% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 21 | 1828 | 92% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1257 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 22 | 1980 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1307 | 1276 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1587 | 80% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1291 | 1254 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Randers FC | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1318 | 67% | 2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 1286 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 9 | 661 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1265 | 1429 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 1 | 90 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1142 | 1450 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 4 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1283 | 1317 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2647 | 87% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1352 | 1296 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1325 | 1317 | 0.59 |
| 2014/15 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 25 | 2097 | 71% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1362 | 1271 | 0.48 |
| 2013/14 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1462 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1348 | 1314 | 0.63 |
| 2012/13 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | CB | 25 | 2158 | 73% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1334 | 1264 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 324 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 43 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 223 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 3 | 194 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Albentosa Superliga · 2024 | 36 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Georgios Kousas Super League 1 · 2017 | 35 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Aderllan Santos Liga Portugal · 2024 | 35 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Jesper Mikkelsen Superliga · 2013 | 33 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Kees Luijckx Superliga · 2019 | 33 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| David Simón Super League 1 · 2024 | 36 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Denys Kulakov Premier Liga · 2021 | 35 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Dennis Souza Super League 1 · 2013 | 33 | €350k | €125k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2022 | Midtjylland | Randers FC | €100k | €600k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Heerenveen | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Basel | Heerenveen | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Odense BK | Basel | €1.5M | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Odense BK U19 | Odense BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Odense BK Youth | Odense BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.