Pedro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-26.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.1M-32.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.0M-36.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (2197 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €24.1M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 14% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2197 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1322
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 14%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.0M – €36.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -36% to +35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 28 | 2197 | 81% | 2 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 1322 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 26 | 1387 | 51% | 5 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.30 | 1259 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 11 | 417 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 1325 | 1491 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 8 | 305 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 604 | 0 | 5 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 362 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franco Cervi Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Tetê Premier Liga · 2021 | 21 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Victor Boniface Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €12.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Gastón Pereiro Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €7.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Johan Bakayoko Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Amin Younes Eredivisie · 2017 | 24 | €7.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Calvin Stengs Eredivisie · 2020 | 22 | €18.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Jérémy Doku Ligue 1 · 2021 | 19 | €22.0M | €28.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2024 | Corinthians | Zenit S-Pb | €9.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.