Johan Bakayoko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Johan Bakayoko's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-28.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.2M-24.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.1M-27.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (774 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 63.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €19.0M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 774 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.1M – €27.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; team strength down (-64 Elo); league level up (+168 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -39% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 774 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 20 | 774 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 1487 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 30 | 1581 | 52% | 9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.26 | 1262 | 1632 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 33 | 2503 | 82% | 12 | 9 | 0.76 | 0.32 | 1344 | 1659 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RW | 23 | 1378 | 45% | 5 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.27 | 1313 | 1649 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 118 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 861 | 2 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 224 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1593 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 653 | 1 | 1 | 1648 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 321 | 0 | 4 | 1452 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 153 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 277 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 242 | 1 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1608 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €24.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Cengiz Ünder Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €24.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Marcus Thuram Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Abde Ezzalzouli Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €9.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Justin Kluivert Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Saido Berahino Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Riccardo Sottil Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Alexis Saelemaekers Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €17.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | PSV | Leipzig | €18.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSV U21 | PSV | Unknown | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | PSV U18 | PSV U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | PSV U19 | PSV U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Jul 2019 | Anderlecht Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KV Mechelen Yth | Anderlecht Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Club Brugge Yth | KV Mechelen Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | OH Leuven Yth. | Club Brugge Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.