Junior Mwanga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Junior Mwanga's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-9.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1642 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1642 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 51 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1439
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €9.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +94% (IQR -37% to +323%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1642 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | DM | 15 | 1263 | 41% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1439 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 5 | 379 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1397 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | DM | 11 | 954 | 31% | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1510 | 1333 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | DM | 8 | 291 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1516 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | DM | 22 | 1456 | 48% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 1495 | 1393 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €5.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Angelo Fulgini Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €5.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Nahuel Molina Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €7.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Emmanuel Badu Serie A · 2014 | 24 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Amir Richardson Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Azzedine Ounahi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Alexis Blin Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Rémi Walter Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.6M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | FC Nantes | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | R. Strasbourg | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Le Havre AC | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 8 Aug 2023 | G. Bordeaux | R. Strasbourg | €10.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | G. Bordeaux B | G. Bordeaux | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bordeaux U19 | G. Bordeaux B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Bordeaux U17 | Bordeaux U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Lyon U17 | Bordeaux U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Lyon Yth. | FC Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Cascol Jugend | FC Lyon Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.