
Nahuel Molina
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nahuel Molina's performance-implied value at EUR 7.5M-16.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-11.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-13.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €6.4M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1321 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1476
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €13.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -80% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1321 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RB | 26 | 1321 | 39% | 2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 1476 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RB | 30 | 1581 | 46% | 0 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1497 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RM | 30 | 1858 | 54% | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 1481 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | RB | 33 | 2872 | 84% | 4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 1497 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 35 | 2650 | 77% | 7 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 1483 | 1436 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | RM | 29 | 1823 | 53% | 2 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 1472 | 1387 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 13 | 697 | 0 | 0 | 1693 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 372 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 425 | 1 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 377 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 10 | 792 | 0 | 2 | 1670 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 5 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1810 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 6 | 468 | 0 | 0 | 1594 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 390 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Pedraza Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €15.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Laurent Koscielny Premier League · 2013 | 28 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Mateo Musacchio Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €12.5M | €9.0M | fell |
| Aritz Elustondo Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €14.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Mattia De Sciglio Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marius Wolf Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Victor Lindelöf Premier League · 2024 | 30 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2022 | Udinese | Atlético | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 15 Sept 2020 | Boca Juniors II | Udinese | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Dec 2019 | Rosario Central | Boca Juniors II | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 25 Jan 2019 | Boca Juniors II | Rosario Central | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | Defensa | Boca Juniors II | Free / loan | €750k |
| 10 Jan 2018 | Boca Juniors II | Defensa | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | CABJ U20 | Boca Juniors II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.