Nahuel Molina

28 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Argentina
Atlético de Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€15.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€4.8M – €11.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€7.5M – €16.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€4.1M – €13.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.4M – €11.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€4.8M – €11.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€7.5M – €16.5M
Projected value (24 months)€4.1M – €13.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nahuel Molina's performance-implied value at EUR 7.5M-16.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.8M-11.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-13.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh81.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €6.4M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1321 (39% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.27
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.16
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1619
Opponent strength
1476
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€4.1M – €13.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -80% to -43%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1321 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Atlético de MadridLaligaRB26132139%220.270.16147616190.95
2024/25Atlético de MadridLaligaRB30158146%030.170.13149716550.95
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaRM30185854%230.240.18148116671.00
2022/23Atlético de MadridLaligaRB33287284%420.190.14149716560.98
2021/22Udinese CalcioSerie ARM35265077%750.410.42148314360.89
2020/21Udinese CalcioSerie ARM29182353%250.350.34147213870.90

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid13697001693
2025/26Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid637202—
2025/26World CupArgentina213500—
2025/26SupercopaAtlético de Madrid110001747
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid8425101695
2024/25Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid637700—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid10792021670
2023/24Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid532200—
2023/24SupercopaAtlético de Madrid153001810
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueAtlético de Madrid6468001594
2022/23Copa Del ReyAtlético de Madrid439002—
2021/22Italy CupUdinese Calcio213510—
2020/21Italy CupUdinese Calcio29600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Alfonso Pedraza
Laliga · 2023
27€15.0M€2.5Mfell
Juan Foyth
Laliga · 2024
26€15.0M€8.0Mfell
Laurent Koscielny
Premier League · 2013
28€15.0M€20.0Mrose
Mateo Musacchio
Serie A · 2018
28€12.5M€9.0Mfell
Aritz Elustondo
Laliga · 2023
29€14.0M€3.0Mfell
Mattia De Sciglio
Serie A · 2022
30€6.0M€1.0Mfell
Marius Wolf
Bundesliga · 2023
28€10.0M€3.0Mfell
Victor Lindelöf
Premier League · 2024
30€15.0M€5.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Jul 2022UdineseAtlético€20.0M€20.0M
15 Sept 2020Boca Juniors IIUdineseFree / loan€2.0M
31 Dec 2019Rosario CentralBoca Juniors IIFree / loan€2.5M
25 Jan 2019Boca Juniors IIRosario CentralFree / loan€750k
31 Dec 2018DefensaBoca Juniors IIFree / loan€750k
10 Jan 2018Boca Juniors IIDefensaFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2015CABJ U20Boca Juniors IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.