Marc Bernal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Bernal's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-31.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.2M-48.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.6M-91.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (787 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 77.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €38.6M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +108% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 63% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 787 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1465
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 63%
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.6M – €91.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +19% (IQR -28% to +182%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 787 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 22 | 787 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.11 | 1465 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 3 | 244 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1484 | 1792 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 259 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Musiala Bundesliga · 2021 | 18 | €38.0M | €110M | rose |
| Kristjan Asllani Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Christopher Nkunku Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €10.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Curtis Jones Premier League · 2021 | 20 | €30.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Phil Foden Premier League · 2020 | 20 | €27.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Ilaix Moriba Laliga · 2021 | 18 | €25.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Amadou Diawara Serie A · 2018 | 21 | €18.0M | €18.5M | flat |
| Joe Willock Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €16.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça U16 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | G.Manresa Yth. | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.