Christopher Nkunku
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christopher Nkunku's performance-implied value at EUR 17.2M-23.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.0M-29.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-16.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1351 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.0M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1351 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.67
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1570
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.2M – €16.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-129 Elo); league level down (-108 Elo); relative output up 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -73% to -51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1351 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AC Milan | Serie A | ST | 32 | 1351 | 40% | 7 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.48 | 1507 | 1570 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 27 | 910 | 27% | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1527 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 11 | 439 | 13% | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 1560 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | SS | 25 | 1897 | 62% | 16 | 6 | 1.04 | 0.76 | 1529 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | SS | 34 | 2733 | 89% | 20 | 15 | 1.15 | 0.78 | 1517 | 1663 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 1894 | 62% | 6 | 7 | 0.62 | 0.37 | 1522 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 1925 | 63% | 5 | 15 | 0.94 | 0.52 | 1514 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 22 | 1171 | 34% | 3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 1400 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 20 | 622 | 18% | 4 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.18 | 1373 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 8 | 397 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1364 | 1757 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 5 | 329 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1395 | 1748 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 87 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 2 | 147 | 2 | 0 | 1461 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 562 | 3 | 1 | 1683 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 184 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1847 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 531 | 7 | 2 | 1708 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 6 | 526 | 4 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 6 | 483 | 4 | 3 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 585 | 1 | 2 | 1699 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 321 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 9 | 513 | 0 | 1 | 1663 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1900 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1615 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Schürrle Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €15.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Arkadiusz Milik Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €16.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Lucas Alario Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €20.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Stevan Jovetić Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €15.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Pépé Ligue 1 · 2023 | 28 | €18.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Gerard Moreno Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €20.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Karim Bellarabi Bundesliga · 2018 | 28 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | AC Milan | €37.0M | €35.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Leipzig | Chelsea | €60.0M | €80.0M |
| 18 Jul 2019 | PSG | Leipzig | €19.5M | €12.0M |
| 23 Dec 2015 | Paris SG B | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Paris SG U19 | Paris SG B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | RCPF Jugend | PSG Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.