Ismaëlo Ganiou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ismaëlo Ganiou's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-13.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.7M-31.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.0M-43.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €26.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2014 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1569
- Opponent strength
- 1440
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.0M – €43.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -40% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 2014 | 66% | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1440 | 1569 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Djaló Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €16.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Victor Kristiansen Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Stefan Savic Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Wilfried Singo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €40.0M | €36.0M | flat |
| Jérémy Gélin Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €8.0M | €4.8M | fell |
| Adrien Truffert Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Layvin Kurzawa Ligue 1 · 2015 | 23 | €10.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Padova | Lens | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Annecy | Padova | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Padova | FC Annecy | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Lens | Padova | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | RC Lens B | Lens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | RC Lens U17 | RC Lens B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Lens Yth. | RC Lens U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Wasquehal Jgd | Lens Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | OS Fives Jgd. | Wasquehal Jgd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.