Mike Themsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mike Themsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.49x the positional average in the league (1258 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 7.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €853k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 31% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1258 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1234
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 31%
- Resale range (24m)
- €552k – €3.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +51% (IQR -4% to +127%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1258 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | AM | 21 | 1258 | 64% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 1234 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | AM | 11 | 301 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 1279 | 1276 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najeeb Yakubu Premier Liga · 2021 | 21 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Jesse Bosch Eredivisie · 2021 | 21 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Nayel Mehssatou Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 21 | €1.2M | €2.2M | rose |
| Kyrylo Dryshlyuk Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Danil Prutsev Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €1.2M | €4.5M | rose |
| Abu Francis Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Stuart Carswell Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 22 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Nicolas Madsen Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €750k | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Randers FC U19 | Randers FC | Unknown | €75k |
| 18 Aug 2023 | FCH Youth | Randers FC U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Aug 2020 | FIF Hilleröd | FCH Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Aug 2020 | FCN Youth | FIF Hilleröd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 28 Jan 2016 | Hundested IK | FCN Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 18 Feb 2013 | FIF Hilleröd | Hundested IK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.