Noah Markmann
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Markmann's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-7.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €2.3M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +71% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1556 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1315
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €7.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +8% (IQR -38% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1556 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1556 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1259 | 1314 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 4 | 132 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1146 | 1341 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | 258 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Busch Superliga · 2024 | 21 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Philippe Sandler Eredivisie · 2018 | 21 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Rocky Bushiri Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 20 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Sebastian Hausner Superliga · 2021 | 21 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Cameron Humphreys Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Joost van Aken Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Karim Rekik Eredivisie · 2014 | 20 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Ewoud Pletinckx Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 20 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2024 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.