Gustavo Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustavo Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.1M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1466 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.6M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1466 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1303
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; role change LW -> ST; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -39% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1466 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 23 | 1466 | 48% | 5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 1303 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | LW | 21 | 866 | 28% | 7 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 1327 | 1412 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 1 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1373 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton N'Jie Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Sami Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Nikolay Komlichenko Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Ali Sowe Premier Liga · 2021 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Miroslav Stoch Super Lig · 2016 | 27 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| François Kamano Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Chidera Ejuke Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2024 | Comercial-SP | Vit. Guimarães | €500k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Nacional | Comercial-SP | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Comercial-SP | Nacional | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Taquaritinga-SP | Comercial-SP | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.