Fer López
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fer López's performance-implied value at EUR 3.1M-9.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.0M-24.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.4M-31.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1405 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.4M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 24% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1405 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1486
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 24%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.4M – €31.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; role change AM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -48% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1405 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | CM | 17 | 1175 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1467 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | AM | 9 | 230 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 1566 | 1425 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | AM | 16 | 625 | 18% | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 1555 | 1476 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 6 | 257 | 1 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Longstaff Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €17.5M | €13.0M | fell |
| Junior Dina Ebimbe Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Kang-in Lee Laliga · 2021 | 20 | €10.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Nico González Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Rodri Sánchez Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €2.7M | fell |
| Kevin Paredes Bundesliga · 2024 | 21 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dennis Geiger Bundesliga · 2020 | 22 | €11.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Jakub Moder Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Celta de Vigo | Wolves | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Wolves | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Celta de Vigo | Wolves | €23.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Celta Fortuna | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Celta U19 | Celta Fortuna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.