Gabriel Moscardo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Moscardo's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-4.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-10.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-13.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.34x the positional average in the league (941 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 941 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1280
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €13.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +57% (IQR -14% to +249%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 941 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | DM | 23 | 941 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1280 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | DM | 6 | 80 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1380 | 1357 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 9 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 2 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1256 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Sadiki Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 20 | €5.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Sander Berge Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 20 | €9.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Viktor Kovalenko Premier Liga · 2016 | 20 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Jaïro Riedewald Eredivisie · 2015 | 19 | €1.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Rodrigo Gomes Liga Portugal · 2022 | 19 | €3.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Oscar Hiljemark Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €2.2M | €2.3M | flat |
| Eboue Kouassi Premier Liga · 2017 | 20 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sotiris Alexandropoulos Super League 1 · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Braga | PSG | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 19 Jul 2025 | PSG | Braga | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 10 Jun 2025 | Stade Reims | PSG | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | PSG | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Corinthians | PSG | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | PSG | Corinthians | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 25 Jan 2024 | Corinthians | PSG | €20.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.