Sander Berge
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sander Berge's performance-implied value at EUR 18.5M-39.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.8M-28.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.0M-20.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.36x the positional average in the league (2911 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €21.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -44% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2911 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1587
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.0M – €20.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -54% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | DM | 35 | 2911 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1587 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Fulham FC | Premier League | DM | 31 | 2227 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1603 | 1555 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Burnley FC | Premier League | CM | 37 | 3006 | 88% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1594 | 1366 | 1.14 |
| 2020/21 | Sheffield United | Premier League | CM | 15 | 1121 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 1554 | 1390 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 23 | 1987 | 76% | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 1366 | 1429 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | Sheffield United | Premier League | DM | 14 | 949 | 28% | 1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1567 | 1519 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 19 | 1373 | 51% | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1350 | 1557 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 12 | 1009 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1358 | 1445 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 9 | 616 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1334 | 1500 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 3 | 215 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | KRC Genk | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1746 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1437 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 5 | 390 | 2 | 1 | 1493 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 476 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joan Jordán Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €22.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Mauro Arambarri Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Leander Dendoncker Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €30.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Kevin Kampl Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Jonny Otto Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Fred Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €22.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Guido Rodríguez Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €28.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nélson Semedo Premier League · 2024 | 31 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2024 | Burnley | Fulham | €23.6M | €20.0M |
| 9 Aug 2023 | Sheff Utd | Burnley | €13.9M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Genk | Sheff Utd | €25.0M | €22.0M |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Vålerenga | Genk | €2.0M | €800k |
| 9 Feb 2015 | Asker | Vålerenga | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Asker FH Yth. | Asker | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.