Noah Sadiki
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Sadiki's performance-implied value at EUR 19.1M-58.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.7M-52.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.6M-50.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (2896 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €39.6M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2896 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1496
- Opponent strength
- 1605
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.6M – €50.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+240 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -31% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | CM | 33 | 2896 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 1605 | 1496 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 29 | 2424 | 90% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1371 | 1545 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Union Saint-Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 1138 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1384 | 1589 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 12 | 402 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1290 | 1432 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 4 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 3 | 168 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 2 | 146 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 10 | 885 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2024/25 | Volkswagen Supercup | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1557 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | 256 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 1354 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilfred Ndidi Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Igor Zubeldia Laliga · 2020 | 23 | €24.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Matheus Nunes Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Isco Laliga · 2013 | 21 | €25.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Jonny Otto Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Pablo Fornals Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €25.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Rico Henry Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Santiago Ascacíbar Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Union SG | Sunderland | €17.0M | €12.0M |
| 27 Jul 2023 | RSC Anderlecht | Union SG | €900k | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | RSCA Futures | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Anderlecht U18 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.