Ibrahim Osman
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ibrahim Osman's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-6.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-9.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-11.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.04x the positional average in the league (623 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 44.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.7M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 20% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 623 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1402
- Opponent strength
- 1447
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 20%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €11.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-164 Elo); league level up (+147 Elo); role change RW -> LW; relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +10% (IQR -37% to +104%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 623 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | LW | 14 | 623 | 20% | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.42 | 1447 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 22 | 779 | 25% | 3 | 3 | 0.69 | 0.34 | 1328 | 1565 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | LW | 20 | 1314 | 66% | 2 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 1282 | 1444 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | LW | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1253 | 1352 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Birmingham City | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 7 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 216 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 370 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 202 | 1 | 1 | 1453 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 136 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badredine Bouanani Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Martín Satriano Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €7.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Yann Karamoh Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Myziane Maolida Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €7.2M | €3.0M | fell |
| Matthis Abline Ligue 1 · 2023 | 20 | €4.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Marko Livaja Serie A · 2013 | 20 | €3.3M | €4.0M | rose |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €6.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Valentín Viola Liga Portugal · 2013 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Birmingham | Brighton | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Brighton | Birmingham | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 18 Jan 2026 | AJ Auxerre | Brighton | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 8 Jul 2025 | Brighton | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Feyenoord | Brighton | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Brighton | Feyenoord | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Nordsjaelland | Brighton | €19.5M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Right to Dream | Nordsjaelland | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.