
Martín Satriano
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martín Satriano's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-13.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-15.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.1M-15.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (2301 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €10.9M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2301 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1478
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.1M – €15.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -0% (IQR -58% to +74%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Getafe CF | Laliga | ST | 18 | 1607 | 47% | 6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 1495 | 1446 | 0.95 |
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | ST | 11 | 694 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 1381 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Lens | Ligue 1 | ST | 7 | 81 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1522 | 1484 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | ST | 33 | 1869 | 61% | 4 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 1477 | 1504 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | ST | 31 | 1708 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.38 | 1478 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | ST | 15 | 939 | 27% | 4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 1418 | 1369 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | ST | 4 | 34 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1386 | 1731 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 510 | 1 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Gaëtan Laborde Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €5.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Lucca Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Carles Pérez Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Fran Pérez Laliga · 2024 | 22 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Steffen Tigges Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Erik Lamela Premier League · 2015 | 23 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Gökhan Töre Super Lig · 2014 | 22 | €5.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Lyon | Getafe | €6.5M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Getafe | Lyon | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Lyon | Getafe | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Lens | Lyon | €5.0M | €6.0M |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Lyon | Lens | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Lens | Lyon | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Inter | Lens | €4.8M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Lens | Inter | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Inter | Lens | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Stade Brestois | Inter | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Inter | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Empoli | Inter | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 4 Jul 2022 | Inter | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Stade Brestois | Inter | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Inter | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Inter U19 | Inter | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Nacional | Inter U19 | €2.4M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Nacional U19 | Nacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.