Matthis Abline
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matthis Abline's performance-implied value at EUR 4.4M-22.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.8M-24.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.3M-29.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.36x the positional average in the league (2497 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.9M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2497 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1304
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.3M – €29.0M
Trajectory drivers: role change ST -> LW; relative output up 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +64% (IQR -12% to +95%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LW | 32 | 2497 | 82% | 6 | 5 | 0.40 | 0.55 | 1479 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | ST | 34 | 2788 | 91% | 9 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 1456 | 1357 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | ST | 22 | 1044 | 34% | 5 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.68 | 1484 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | ST | 19 | 800 | 23% | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.56 | 1416 | 1314 | 0.82 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 11 | 96 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 1.88 | 0.45 | 1387 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2020/21 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1264 | 1445 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 4 | 141 | 1 | 0 | 1483 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Diallo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 25 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Wissam Ben Yedder Ligue 1 · 2015 | 25 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Josip Drmic Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Yoane Wissa Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €10.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Paulo Dybala Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €28.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Grégoire Defrel Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Mason Greenwood Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €25.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Folarin Balogun Ligue 1 · 2023 | 22 | €30.0M | €18.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2024 | Stade Rennais | FC Nantes | €10.0M | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Nantes | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 25 Aug 2023 | Stade Rennais | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | AJ Auxerre | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Stade Rennais | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Le Havre AC | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 21 Jan 2022 | Stade Rennais | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Rennes U17 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Carquefou Jgd | Rennes U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.