Mariano Troilo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mariano Troilo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-5.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.6M-17.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-23.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.3M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1628 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1374
- Opponent strength
- 1531
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €23.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -41% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1628 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 21 | 1628 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1531 | 1374 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Araujo Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Chidozie Awaziem Ligue 1 · 2018 | 21 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gastón Álvarez Laliga · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Schelotto Serie A · 2013 | 24 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Henrichs Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Abakar Sylla Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €12.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gino Peruzzi Serie A · 2014 | 22 | €4.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | Belgrano | Parma | €8.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Belgrano II | Belgrano | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Belgrano U20 | Belgrano II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.