Julián Araujo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julián Araujo's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-8.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-8.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-9.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 64.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.0M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 788 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1406
- Opponent strength
- 1210
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €9.7M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-177 Elo); league level down (-376 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -47% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 788 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 10 | 788 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1210 | 1406 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | RB | 12 | 498 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1668 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | UD Las Palmas | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1463 | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 1480 | 1344 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | UD Las Palmas | 3 | 191 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pipa Super League 1 · 2023 | 25 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Dujon Sterling Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Giulian Biancone Super League 1 · 2024 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Javi Montero Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €3.7M | €1.2M | fell |
| Denys Popov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Christian Luyindama Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €5.5M | €800k | fell |
| Rıdvan Yılmaz Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Giorgi Gocholeishvili Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Celtic | Bournemouth | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Bournemouth | Celtic | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 13 Aug 2024 | Barcelona | Bournemouth | €10.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | UD Las Palmas | Barcelona | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Barcelona | UD Las Palmas | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | LA Galaxy | Barça Atlètic | €5.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Mar 2019 | LA Galaxy Acad. | LA Galaxy | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Barca Academy | LA Galaxy Acad. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.