Isaque
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Isaque's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-7.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.6M-18.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-26.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1026 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €12.9M vs market €11.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1026 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.96
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 41 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1148
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €26.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +2% (IQR -2% to +75%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1026 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1026 | 38% | 5 | 6 | 0.96 | 0.45 | 1148 | 1420 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Marlon Gomes Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Paulo Bernardo Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Nicolas Raskin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €6.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Evander Superliga · 2019 | 21 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Can Bozdogan Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €4.3M | €4.5M | flat |
| Metinho Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Tiago Dantas Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2025 | Fluminense | Shakhtar D. | €10.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Fluminense U20 | Fluminense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.