Marlon Gomes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marlon Gomes's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-7.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.4M-15.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.6M-19.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (1243 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.9M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1243 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1145
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.6M – €19.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -9% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1243 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | DM | 19 | 1243 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 1145 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | DM | 23 | 1193 | 44% | 3 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 1178 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | CM | 11 | 476 | 18% | 4 | 1 | 0.95 | 0.26 | 1240 | 1497 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 343 | 0 | 0 | 1344 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 158 | 0 | 1 | 1314 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 343 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 289 | 1 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Todd Cantwell Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €8.5M | flat |
| Konstantinos Galanopoulos Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Tiago Dantas Super League 1 · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Nicolas Raskin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €6.5M | €12.0M | rose |
| Douglas Augusto Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €3.0M | €4.5M | rose |
| Gedson Fernandes Super Lig · 2021 | 22 | €12.5M | €12.0M | flat |
| Ernest Muci Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €13.0M | €11.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2024 | Vasco da Gama | Shakhtar D. | €12.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Vasco U20 | Vasco da Gama | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.