Paco Cortés
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paco Cortés's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-9.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-8.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.84x the positional average in the league (471 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 35.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €3.6M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +76% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 52% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 471 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 52%
- Resale range (24m)
- €946k – €8.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +223% (IQR +78% to +531%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 471 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | LW | 12 | 471 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1477 | 1420 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Cultural Leonesa | 3 | 243 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odsonne Édouard Ligue 1 · 2017 | 19 | €1.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Philipp Ochs Bundesliga · 2016 | 19 | €750k | €750k | flat |
| Jan Thielmann Bundesliga · 2020 | 18 | €2.3M | €7.5M | rose |
| Marco Richter Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €1.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Paco Alcácer Laliga · 2013 | 20 | €2.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Facundo Pellistri Laliga · 2022 | 21 | €2.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Arnaud Nordin Ligue 1 · 2017 | 19 | €600k | €3.5M | rose |
| Neal Maupay Ligue 1 · 2016 | 20 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | CyD Leonesa | Levante | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Levante | CyD Leonesa | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atl. Levante | Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Levante U19 | Atl. Levante | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Levante UD Yout | Levante U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.