Mark Flekken
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mark Flekken's performance-implied value at EUR 7.2M-10.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 96.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2130 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; changed club; league level down (-105 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -79% (IQR -83% to -67%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | GK | 24 | 2130 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1482 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Brentford FC | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3276 | 96% | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1575 | 1583 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brentford FC | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3285 | 96% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1573 | 1500 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1524 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1521 | 1543 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1642 | 1492 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 10 | 900 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1581 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1284 | 1413 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 510 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wojciech Szczesny Serie A · 2023 | 33 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Diego Benaglio Bundesliga · 2016 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vladimir Gabulov Premier Liga · 2015 | 32 | €6.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Danijel Subasic Ligue 1 · 2018 | 34 | €4.5M | €800k | fell |
| Pepe Reina Serie A · 2014 | 32 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Lukasz Skorupski Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Volkan Demirel Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €7.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Diego López Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €4.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Brentford | Leverkusen | €11.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Freiburg | Brentford | €13.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | MSV Duisburg | Freiburg | €2.0M | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Greuther Fürth | MSV Duisburg | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Alem. Aachen | Greuther Fürth | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Aachen U19 | Alem. Aachen | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Aachen U17 | Aachen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Aachen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.