Uchenna Ogundu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Uchenna Ogundu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.3M-7.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-10.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1030 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €5.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1030 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1237
- Opponent strength
- 1318
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €10.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -50% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1030 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 17 | 987 | 32% | 2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 1318 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 5 | 43 | 1% | 0 | 1 | 2.09 | 0.63 | 1508 | 1421 | 0.94 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joelson Fernandes Super Lig · 2024 | 21 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Benjamín Garré Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Olimpiu Moruțan Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Gökdeniz Bayrakdar Super Lig · 2022 | 21 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Ibrahim Cissoko Eredivisie · 2023 | 20 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| João Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2017 | 20 | €2.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Slobodan Tedic Eredivisie · 2021 | 21 | €1.7M | €600k | fell |
| Filip Stevanovic Eredivisie · 2022 | 20 | €2.5M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Alanyaspor | Augsburg | €4.5M | €1.5M |
| 2 Jul 2025 | Sanliurfaspor | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €650k |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Sanliurfa U19 | Sanliurfaspor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Diamond Academy | Sanliurfa U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.