João Cancelo

32 yrs · Right-back (also LB, RM) · Portugal
Al-Hilal Saudi Football Club · Saudi Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
11/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€8.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.3M – €6.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.3M – €18.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.3M – €4.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.1M – €15.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.3M – €6.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.3M – €18.1M
Projected value (24 months)€2.3M – €4.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€8.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates João Cancelo's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-18.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.3M-4.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 11

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh87.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €3.1M vs market €8.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-67% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €70.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
953 (28% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.47
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 20)
Team strength (Elo)
1787
Opponent strength
1491
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.3M – €4.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -65% to -30%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 953 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC BarcelonaLaligaLB1695328%230.470.18149117870.95
2023/24FC BarcelonaLaligaLB32250873%240.220.12149017231.00
2022/23Manchester CityPremier LeagueLB17127837%210.210.12154819151.23
2022/23Bayern MunichBundesligaLB15101333%140.440.13148918171.04
2021/22Manchester CityPremier LeagueLB36322894%170.220.13156118661.17
2020/21Manchester CityPremier LeagueRB28230267%240.230.12156018831.19
2019/20Manchester CityPremier LeagueRB17120535%000.000.03154018481.14
2018/19Juventus FCSerie ARB25196758%120.140.07144717010.78
2017/18Inter MilanSerie ARB26184854%140.240.18147715650.86
2017/18Valencia CFLaligaRM1903%000.000.27140916071.11
2016/17Valencia CFLaligaRM35242571%140.190.32156114991.11
2015/16Valencia CFLaligaRB28211862%140.210.16156415561.17
2014/15Valencia CFLaligaRB1051815%000.000.06152417011.18
2013/14SL BenficaLiga PortugalRB1652%000.000.09163617610.74

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona4331001660
2025/26World CupPortugal318001—
2025/26Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona314801—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona10810211639
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City6377041549
2022/23Dfb PokalBayern Munich216101—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich4121011828
2022/23Community ShieldManchester City190001881
2022/23Fa CupManchester City13100—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City9840231687
2021/22Fa CupManchester City542000—
2021/22Community ShieldManchester City190001585
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City9604111625
2020/21Fa CupManchester City314801—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City8568001621
2019/20Fa CupManchester City428901—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC7479031684
2018/19Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC190001542
2018/19Italy CupJuventus FC16300—
2017/18Italy CupInter Milan224000—
2016/17Copa Del ReyValencia CF327000—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueValencia CF6460101560
2015/16Copa Del ReyValencia CF421310—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueValencia CF176001502
2014/15Copa Del ReyValencia CF320100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Pablo Zabaleta
Premier League · 2017
32€7.0M€3.5Mfell
Danilo D'Ambrosio
Serie A · 2021
33€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Martín Cáceres
Serie A · 2015
28€8.5M€4.0Mfell
Sergi Roberto
Laliga · 2023
31€5.0M€1.5Mfell
Sime Vrsaljko
Laliga · 2022
30€5.0M€4.0Mfell
Daniel Carvajal
Laliga · 2022
30€18.0M€12.0Mfell
Lucas Vázquez
Laliga · 2023
32€8.0M€3.0Mfell
Medhi Benatia
Bundesliga · 2016
29€18.0M€23.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026BarcelonaAl-HilalFree / loan€8.0M
13 Jan 2026Al-HilalBarcelonaFree / loan€10.0M
27 Aug 2024Man CityAl-Hilal€25.0M€25.0M
30 Jun 2024BarcelonaMan CityFree / loan€25.0M
1 Sept 2023Man CityBarcelonaFree / loan€50.0M
30 Jun 2023Bayern MunichMan CityFree / loan€50.0M
31 Jan 2023Man CityBayern MunichFree / loan€70.0M
7 Aug 2019JuventusMan City€65.0M€55.0M
1 Jul 2018ValenciaJuventus€40.4M€35.0M
30 Jun 2018InterValenciaFree / loan€35.0M
22 Aug 2017ValenciaInterFree / loan€20.0M
1 Jul 2015BenficaValencia€15.0M€5.0M
30 Jun 2015ValenciaBenficaFree / loan€2.0M
20 Aug 2014BenficaValenciaFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2014Benfica BBenficaUnknown€2.0M
1 Jan 2013Benfica U19Benfica BUnknown€1.0M
1 Jul 2011Benfica U17Benfica U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Benfica U15Benfica U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Barreirense JBenfica U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.