Emerson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Emerson's performance-implied value at EUR 3.7M-7.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-7.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 7
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -69% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2113 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1466
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €4.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level down (-126 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -63% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LB | 28 | 2113 | 69% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1466 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | LB | 31 | 2125 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1557 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | LB | 36 | 3143 | 92% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1580 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | West Ham United | Premier League | LB | 22 | 1322 | 39% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1576 | 1600 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LB | 29 | 2268 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1443 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1456 | 1737 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 2 | 88 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1533 | 1735 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 15 | 1025 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1557 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 10 | 660 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1520 | 1750 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LM | 5 | 279 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 1496 | 1667 | 1.15 |
| 2017/18 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LB | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1301 | 1712 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LB | 25 | 1967 | 58% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1472 | 1711 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LB | 8 | 183 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.15 | 1448 | 1665 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Palermo FC | Serie A | LB | 9 | 183 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1503 | 1426 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 8 | 503 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 258 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 585 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 371 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 218 | 1 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 198 | 0 | 1 | 1696 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1915 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 11 | 1020 | 0 | 2 | 1530 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 5 | 373 | 1 | 0 | 1538 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 4 | 200 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Alves Premier Liga · 2013 | 32 | €6.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ignazio Abate Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Loïc Perrin Ligue 1 · 2018 | 33 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Clinton Mata Ligue 1 · 2024 | 32 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Aleksandr Anyukov Premier Liga · 2013 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Stefan Radu Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Guillermo Maripán Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €10.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| José Luis Palomino Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | West Ham | Marseille | €700k | €10.0M |
| 23 Aug 2022 | Chelsea | West Ham | €15.4M | €14.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Lyon | Chelsea | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Chelsea | Lyon | Free / loan | €14.0M |
| 30 Jan 2018 | Roma | Chelsea | €20.0M | €14.0M |
| 3 Jan 2017 | Santos | Roma | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Roma | Santos | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 26 Aug 2015 | Santos | Roma | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | US Palermo | Santos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 25 Aug 2014 | Santos | US Palermo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Santos B | Santos | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Santos U20 | Santos B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.