Jonathan Tah

30 yrs · Centre-back · Germany
Bayern Munich · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 195 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
1/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€28.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€15.0M – €29.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€16.9M – €53.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€9.4M – €17.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€12.1M – €38.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€15.0M – €29.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€16.9M – €53.0M
Projected value (24 months)€9.4M – €17.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€28.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jonathan Tah's performance-implied value at EUR 16.9M-53.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.0M-29.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.4M-17.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 1

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite99.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €22.4M vs market €28.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2019 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.13
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.04
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
99 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1871
Opponent strength
1471
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€9.4M – €17.6M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength up (+190 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -53% to -32%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bayern MunichBundesligaCB28201966%210.130.04147118710.94
2024/25Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB33297097%310.120.06148916810.94
2023/24Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB31263286%410.170.08151317871.01
2022/23Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB33248581%100.040.03149816011.04
2021/22Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB33288294%230.160.10152316391.05
2020/21Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB27221973%100.040.04153215631.06
2019/20Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB25209068%010.040.04152916541.06
2018/19Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB33293996%310.120.09151516251.05
2017/18Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB28242779%020.070.06151415691.04
2016/17Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB19163753%110.110.07152515471.06
2015/16Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaCB29256584%010.040.03151716381.02
2013/14Hamburger SVBundesligaCB16127542%010.070.08156113731.03

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich141120111720
2025/26Dfb PokalBayern Munich545000—
2025/26World CupGermany325300—
2025/26Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001531
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen10900001668
2024/25Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen548010—
2024/25Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayer 04 Leverkusen149001637
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen11949001546
2023/24Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen640320—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen8746001557
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen6479001621
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen8675001555
2021/22Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen19000—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5369011493
2020/21Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen17300—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5450001634
2019/20Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen531500—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen4283001629
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen3270001534
2018/19Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen218000—
2017/18Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen551000—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5450001611
2016/17Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen221000—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen6540001627
2015/16Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen436000—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen4360011647
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingBayer 04 Leverkusen2180001587
2013/14Dfb PokalHamburger SV427600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Leonardo Bonucci
Serie A · 2017
30€45.0M€28.0Mfell
Giorgio Chiellini
Serie A · 2015
31€16.5M€10.0Mfell
Mats Hummels
Bundesliga · 2017
29€40.0M€35.0Mflat
Gerard Piqué
Laliga · 2017
30€40.0M€35.0Mflat
Felipe
Laliga · 2020
31€25.5M€6.0Mfell
Kyle Walker
Premier League · 2020
30€40.0M€18.0Mfell
Antonio Rüdiger
Laliga · 2023
30€32.0M€20.0Mfell
Amir Rrahmani
Serie A · 2023
29€25.0M€12.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
9 Jun 2025LeverkusenBayern Munich€2.0M€30.0M
16 Jul 2015HamburgLeverkusen€9.5M€6.0M
30 Jun 2015F. DüsseldorfHamburgFree / loan€4.0M
1 Sept 2014HamburgF. DüsseldorfFree / loan€6.5M
1 Jul 2013HSV U19HamburgUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Hamburg U17HSV U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011HSV Yth.Hamburg U17UnknownData unavailable
4 Aug 2009Concordia Yth.HSV Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Altona 93 Yth.Concordia Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.