Lucas Torró

32 yrs · Defensive midfielder · Spain
CA Osasuna · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€786k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €5.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€742k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€281k – €4.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€786k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €5.1M
Projected value (24 months)€742k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lucas Torró's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.50x the positional average in the league (2307 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 40

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh79.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.0M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-54% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2307 (68% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
79 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1427
Opponent strength
1495
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€742k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output down 51% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -60% to -16%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26CA OsasunaLaligaDM34230767%010.040.06149514270.95
2024/25CA OsasunaLaligaDM35296387%300.090.13151414840.95
2023/24CA OsasunaLaligaDM28179152%100.050.10154514421.00
2022/23CA OsasunaLaligaDM33248873%100.040.07152314550.98
2021/22CA OsasunaLaligaDM33273380%100.030.07152214461.05
2020/21CA OsasunaLaligaDM25154545%010.060.13156014711.10
2019/20Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaDM733011%000.000.07148615351.06
2018/19Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaDM856018%000.000.07148015931.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna38801—
2024/25Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna430000—
2023/24Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna218600—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingCA Osasuna2164001501
2022/23Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna549310—
2020/21Copa Del ReyCA Osasuna212500—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingEintracht Frankfurt4360101299
2019/20Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt11300—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt3184101608
2018/19Franz Beckenbauer SupercupEintracht Frankfurt190001863
2018/19Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt18300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Laurent Abergel
Ligue 1 · 2023
30€3.0M€2.5Mflat
Jens Stryger
Serie A · 2021
30€4.0M€1.7Mfell
Stefano Sabelli
Serie A · 2024
31€1.5M€1.3Mflat
Perparim Hetemaj
Serie A · 2016
30€3.8M€3.5Mflat
Glenn Whelan
Premier League · 2017
33€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Manuel Prietl
Bundesliga · 2022
31€1.8M€450kfell
Mario Götze
Bundesliga · 2024
32€5.5M€3.0Mfell
Mike Frantz
Bundesliga · 2017
31€2.5M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
4 Aug 2020FrankfurtCA Osasuna€2.0M€2.4M
5 Jul 2018Real MadridFrankfurt€3.5M€800k
1 Jul 2018CA OsasunaReal Madrid€1.8M€800k
6 Jul 2017RM CastillaCA OsasunaFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2017Real OviedoRM CastillaFree / loan€700k
18 Jul 2016RM CastillaReal OviedoFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2013Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Aug 2012Alcoyano U19Real Madrid U19€100kData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Hércules AlicanAlcoyano U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Lucas Torró · MoneyballAI