Kiril Despodov

The model rates Kiril Despodov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (805 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

805 (34% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.45

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.27

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

52 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.42 (rank 16)

Team strength (Elo)

1461

Opponent strength

1189

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€1.1M – €3.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength up (+83 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 38% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -66% to -40%).

• ▲Small sample: 805 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

19 (ATT)

Relative output kept

99%–112%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

47%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.