Xaver Schlager
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Xaver Schlager's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-12.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.1M-12.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-8.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.66x the positional average in the league (1837 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.8M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1837 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1484
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €8.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -65% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1837 | 60% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1484 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 4 | 181 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1596 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 29 | 2484 | 81% | 0 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1511 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 22 | 1503 | 49% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1527 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 14 | 1048 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1524 | 1495 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 32 | 2639 | 86% | 2 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1548 | 1613 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CM | 23 | 1731 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1522 | 1562 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 230 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 3 | 194 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 627 | 1 | 2 | 1726 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1817 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 586 | 0 | 0 | 1705 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 201 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 241 | 0 | 2 | 1362 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 199 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 357 | 0 | 0 | 1579 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Spinazzola Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Corentin Tolisso Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Charles Aránguiz Bundesliga · 2017 | 28 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Amine Harit Ligue 1 · 2024 | 27 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mikel John Obi Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Óliver Torres Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €9.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Amin Younes Bundesliga · 2021 | 28 | €10.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ambroise Oyongo Ligue 1 · 2019 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Leipzig | Without Club | Unknown | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Wolfsburg | Leipzig | €12.0M | €27.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Salzburg | Wolfsburg | €12.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Unknown | €400k |
| 7 Jan 2015 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Salzburg Youth | AKA Salzb. U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jul 2009 | St. Valentin J. | Salzburg Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.