Rafa Silva

33 yrs · Second striker (also AM, LM, LW, RM, RW) · Portugal
Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 172 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.5M – €7.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€975k – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.3M – €5.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.5M – €7.0M
Projected value (24 months)€975k – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rafa Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-7.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (1740 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh76.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.4M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-66% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1740 (57% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.57
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.54
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
77 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1500
Opponent strength
1289
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€975k – €2.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 39 pts; changed club; team strength up (+160 Elo); league level up (+54 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -76% (IQR -81% to -66%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1740 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (ATT)
Relative output kept
71%–130%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
66%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26SL BenficaLiga PortugalSS1692030%500.490.54128916340.58
2025/26Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigSS1082027%510.660.51128313500.40
2024/25Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigSS35309696%1260.520.52127913400.39
2023/24SL BenficaLiga PortugalAM30249482%14120.940.42136916030.58
2022/23SL BenficaLiga PortugalSS28218972%880.660.46139417180.68
2021/22SL BenficaLiga PortugalRM28204467%8161.060.54134116560.67
2020/21SL BenficaLiga PortugalRM29219572%560.450.39134216190.61
2019/20SL BenficaLiga PortugalLM25169956%750.640.31136515830.59
2018/19SL BenficaLiga PortugalLM26191763%1720.890.33137116830.65
2017/18SL BenficaLiga PortugalRW20121840%350.590.33133316050.64
2016/17SL BenficaLiga PortugalSS20110136%250.570.35137916530.58
2016/17SC BragaLiga PortugalAM1752%000.000.33131113860.58
2015/16SC BragaLiga PortugalLW30197865%820.460.38141114400.58
2014/15SC BragaLiga PortugalLW34275290%260.260.29139214570.68
2013/14SC BragaLiga PortugalLW23159559%330.340.36142414270.74

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü4360021297
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü2180001423
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica2164101756
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü8652231530
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü2177121377
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica6552201500
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica6506201675
2023/24Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190011744
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica10826521600
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4278111486
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica9704111747
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica4334201532
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica7463231596
2020/21Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica164001660
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica114101525
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica3124111562
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica2101101641
2019/20Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190121634
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica6369001672
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica5315001598
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingSL Benfica125001558
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica11001569
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueSL Benfica3126001691
2016/17Supercup Candido De OliveiraSC Braga190001718
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga121070341502

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Artem Dzyuba
Premier Liga · 2022
34€6.0M€2.0Mfell
Sebastián Palacios
Super League 1 · 2024
32€2.0M€700kfell
Lukas Podolski
Super Lig · 2017
32€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Aleksandr Samedov
Premier Liga · 2017
33€3.0M€400kfell
Mehdi Carcela-González
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
31€2.4M€500kfell
Eljero Elia
Eredivisie · 2017
30€6.0M€1.0Mfell
Dieumerci Mbokani
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
36€2.0M€400kfell
Youssef El Arabi
Super League 1 · 2021
34€3.0M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Jan 2026BesiktasBenfica€5.0M€5.0M
1 Jul 2024BenficaBesiktasFree / loan€14.0M
31 Aug 2016BragaBenfica€16.0M€15.0M
8 Jul 2013FeirenseBraga€496kData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Feirense U19FeirenseUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Alverca U19Feirense U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Alverca U17Alverca U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Alverca U15Alverca U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Alverca YouthAlverca U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Povoense Fo.Alverca YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Rafa Silva · MoneyballAI