Duje Caleta-Car
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Duje Caleta-Car's performance-implied value at EUR 6.3M-9.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 71
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2150 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €881k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-110 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -82% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CB | 27 | 2150 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1478 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 19 | 1585 | 52% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1425 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 1992 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1479 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 13 | 944 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1548 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1450 | 1568 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 26 | 2061 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1446 | 1591 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 33 | 2816 | 82% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1437 | 1455 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 23 | 1884 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1433 | 1539 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 20 | 1545 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1477 | 1477 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 479 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 9 | 613 | 0 | 1 | 1514 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2020/21 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Sebastian Langkamp Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Federico Ceccherini Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iza Carcelén Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Fabian Lustenberger Bundesliga · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €400k | fell |
| Pape Diakhaté Super Lig · 2014 | 30 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Nenad Tomovic Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €3.3M | €600k | fell |
| Pablo Marí Serie A · 2023 | 30 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Real Sociedad | Lyon | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 1 Aug 2025 | Lyon | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 8 Jul 2024 | Southampton | Lyon | €3.6M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Lyon | Southampton | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 2 Aug 2023 | Southampton | Lyon | Free / loan | €11.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Marseille | Southampton | €8.0M | €16.0M |
| 20 Jul 2018 | Salzburg | Marseille | €19.0M | €10.0M |
| 7 Jan 2015 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Salzburg | FC Liefering | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2014 | FC Pasching | Salzburg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jul 2013 | Salzburg | FC Pasching | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Jul 2013 | HNK Sibenik | Salzburg | €50k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | HNK Sibenik U17 | HNK Sibenik | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | HNK Sibenik Jgd | HNK Sibenik U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.