Alexander Sørloth
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexander Sørloth's performance-implied value at EUR 9.3M-30.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.8M-20.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.7M-13.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (1981 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €14.5M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1981 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.59
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1619
- Opponent strength
- 1458
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.7M – €13.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 45% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -56% (IQR -65% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 35 | 1981 | 58% | 13 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 1458 | 1619 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | ST | 35 | 1561 | 46% | 20 | 2 | 1.27 | 0.68 | 1485 | 1655 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2491 | 73% | 23 | 6 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 1486 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2398 | 70% | 12 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 1517 | 1604 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1425 | 1685 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | ST | 33 | 1760 | 51% | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 1549 | 1559 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 1432 | 47% | 5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.29 | 1503 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Trabzonspor | Super Lig | ST | 34 | 2990 | 98% | 24 | 9 | 0.99 | 0.68 | 1333 | 1410 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 9 | 751 | 28% | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 1370 | 1478 | 0.65 |
| 2018/19 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | ST | 12 | 173 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1571 | 1573 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 19 | 1440 | 62% | 10 | 8 | 1.13 | 0.68 | 1264 | 1492 | 0.47 |
| 2017/18 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | LW | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1676 | 1520 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 25 | 926 | 30% | 3 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 1331 | 1345 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | ST | 13 | 676 | 22% | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.53 | 1376 | 1337 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 14 | 617 | 6 | 1 | 1664 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Norway | 2 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 7 | 294 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 8 | 290 | 0 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 6 | 412 | 3 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 429 | 2 | 1 | 1564 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 322 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 4 | 247 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 7 | 240 | 2 | 1 | 1486 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 178 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 4 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Trabzonspor | 4 | 263 | 0 | 1 | 1557 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Trabzonspor | 4 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 1 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 292 | 4 | 1 | 1352 |
| 2017/18 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 80 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin van Persie Premier League · 2015 | 32 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Arkadiusz Milik Serie A · 2023 | 29 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Emmanuel Adebayor Premier League · 2013 | 29 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ángel Correa Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Pedro Premier League · 2016 | 29 | €23.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Álvaro Morata Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €25.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Paulo Dybala Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Clint Dempsey Premier League · 2013 | 30 | €11.5M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | Villarreal | Atlético | €32.0M | €25.0M |
| 25 Jul 2023 | Leipzig | Villarreal | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Real Sociedad | Leipzig | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 29 Aug 2022 | Leipzig | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Real Sociedad | Leipzig | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 25 Aug 2021 | Leipzig | Real Sociedad | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Crystal Palace | Leipzig | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 21 Sept 2020 | Trabzonspor | Crystal Palace | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 4 Aug 2019 | Crystal Palace | Trabzonspor | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | KAA Gent | Crystal Palace | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 8 Jan 2019 | Crystal Palace | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Midtjylland | Crystal Palace | €16.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Groningen | Midtjylland | €450k | €850k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Rosenborg BK | FC Groningen | €550k | €700k |
| 31 Dec 2015 | Bodø/Glimt | Rosenborg BK | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Rosenborg BK | Bodø/Glimt | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | RBK Youth | Rosenborg BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Mar 2010 | Strindheim Yth. | RBK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.