Lorenzo Montipò
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lorenzo Montipò's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-9.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 73.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €781k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3150 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1269
- Opponent strength
- 1519
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €452k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-97 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -59% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1519 | 1269 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1519 | 1366 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1482 | 1381 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1473 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1485 | 1441 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Benevento Calcio | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1466 | 1253 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nícolas Serie A · 2018 | 30 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Mory Diaw Ligue 1 · 2024 | 31 | €1.8M | €900k | fell |
| Marcel Schuhen Bundesliga · 2024 | 31 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Saso Fornezzi Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €2.0M | €600k | fell |
| Clément Maury Ligue 1 · 2016 | 31 | €1.3M | €500k | fell |
| Alexis Thébaux Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Nunes Liga Portugal · 2013 | 31 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Adriano Facchini Liga Portugal · 2013 | 30 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Benevento | Hellas Verona | €1.1M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Hellas Verona | Benevento | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Benevento | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Novara | Benevento | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Benevento | Novara | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 13 Jul 2018 | Novara | Benevento | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Jan 2017 | Carpi | Novara | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Novara | Carpi | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Robur Siena | Novara | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 Jul 2015 | Novara | Robur Siena | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Novara Youth | Novara | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.