Olivier Kemen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Olivier Kemen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.58x the positional average in the league (2300 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €820k vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2300 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1283
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €829k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+71 Elo); relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -38% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CM | 29 | 2300 | 75% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1283 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CM | 33 | 2489 | 77% | 2 | 8 | 0.36 | 0.25 | 1278 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | CM | 13 | 875 | 26% | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 1320 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | AM | 14 | 863 | 25% | 2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.39 | 1297 | 1397 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | CM | 27 | 1945 | 60% | 3 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 1289 | 1255 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | CM | 22 | 1261 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 1269 | 1216 | 0.42 |
| 2016/17 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | AM | 2 | 58 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1321 | 1604 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 2 | 105 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1391 | 1533 | 0.78 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Cameroon | 3 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 3 | 91 | 0 | 1 | 1348 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 4 | 316 | 2 | 2 | 1231 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeca Super League 1 · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Damian Szymański Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Petros Mantalos Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Soner Dikmen Super Lig · 2023 | 30 | €2.6M | €1.0M | fell |
| Artem Timofeev Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Jakob Johansson Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Yann M'Vila Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2024 | Kayserispor | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 6 Aug 2021 | Chamois Niort | Kayserispor | Unknown | €1.4M |
| 3 Jul 2019 | Lyon | Chamois Niort | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | G. Ajaccio | Lyon | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 10 Jul 2017 | Lyon | G. Ajaccio | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | G. Ajaccio | Lyon | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 11 Jan 2017 | Lyon | G. Ajaccio | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Newcastle U21 | Lyon | €800k | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jul 2013 | Metz U17 | Newcastle U21 | €130k | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jul 2011 | Metz Youth | Metz U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jul 2010 | ACBB Youth | Metz Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.