Nikola Vasilj
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikola Vasilj's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-6.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-6.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-3.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €3.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -41% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | GK | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1497 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1507 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2020/21 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 16 | 1337 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1282 | 1450 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | GK | 1 | 90 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1256 | 1463 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luigi Sepe Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Orestis Karnezis Serie A · 2016 | 31 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Wladimiro Falcone Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Marco Silvestri Serie A · 2020 | 29 | €4.8M | €5.0M | flat |
| Marco Bizot Ligue 1 · 2022 | 31 | €4.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Arthur Desmas Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Guillermo Ochoa Ligue 1 · 2014 | 29 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Andrea Consigli Serie A · 2018 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | St. Pauli | Without Club | Unknown | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Zorya Lugansk | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 16 Jul 2019 | Nuremberg II | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Without Club | Nuremberg II | Unknown | €250k |
| 4 Apr 2017 | Zrinjski Mostar | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Br. Mostar | Zrinjski Mostar | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Zrinjski Mostar | Br. Mostar | Free / loan | €125k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Igman Konjic | Zrinjski Mostar | Free / loan | €125k |
| 30 Jul 2014 | Zrinjski Mostar | Igman Konjic | Free / loan | €100k |
| 14 Sept 2012 | Zr. Mostar U19 | Zrinjski Mostar | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Medjugorje | Zr. Mostar U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.