Youri Tielemans
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Youri Tielemans's performance-implied value at EUR 31.2M-70.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-30.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.4M-19.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (1863 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €18.3M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1863 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1596
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.4M – €19.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; relative output down 35% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -68% to -16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 25 | 1863 | 54% | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1596 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 36 | 3032 | 89% | 3 | 7 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1564 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | CM | 32 | 1621 | 47% | 2 | 6 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 1583 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Leicester City | Premier League | CM | 31 | 2351 | 69% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 1567 | 1498 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leicester City | Premier League | CM | 32 | 2634 | 77% | 6 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 1540 | 1582 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leicester City | Premier League | DM | 38 | 3358 | 98% | 6 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.21 | 1562 | 1585 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Leicester City | Premier League | CM | 37 | 2834 | 83% | 3 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 1604 | 1563 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 20 | 1684 | 49% | 5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 1430 | 1396 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Leicester City | Premier League | CM | 13 | 1092 | 32% | 3 | 5 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 1544 | 1558 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 27 | 1566 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1438 | 1620 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 2303 | 85% | 12 | 8 | 0.78 | 0.40 | 1335 | 1576 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 24 | 1721 | 64% | 4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 1335 | 1510 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 29 | 2310 | 86% | 3 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.14 | 1313 | 1460 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 19 | 1118 | 41% | 0 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1318 | 1440 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 8 | 554 | 1 | 3 | 1551 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 3 | 265 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 12 | 1046 | 2 | 3 | 1632 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 5 | 433 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 2 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 1221 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 5 | 367 | 0 | 1 | 1502 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 155 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Leicester City | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1864 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 7 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 6 | 540 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 2 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2018/19 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1774 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 4 | 311 | 1 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1757 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 11 | 933 | 3 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1524 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 152 | 1 | 1 | 1385 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 9 | 495 | 0 | 1 | 1575 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | RSC Anderlecht | 6 | 471 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 161 | 0 | 1 | 1626 |
| 2014/15 | Volkswagen Supercup | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1398 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | RSC Anderlecht | 4 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 1672 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Partey Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €40.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Victor Moses Premier League · 2018 | 28 | €20.0M | €6.8M | fell |
| Pablo Fornals Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €22.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Franco Vázquez Laliga · 2017 | 28 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Willian Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Mesut Özil Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €25.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo De Paul Laliga · 2022 | 28 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Fernando Premier League · 2015 | 28 | €16.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Leicester | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 8 Jul 2019 | Monaco | Leicester | €45.0M | €38.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Leicester | Monaco | Free / loan | €38.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Monaco | Leicester | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RSC Anderlecht | Monaco | €25.0M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Anderlecht U17 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.